Alleged IPCC Draft Report Leaks
The Australian newspaper reports on a leaked draft copy of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) upcoming report, scheduled to be released by 2007 [more]. The IPCC represents the scientific consensus of thousands of climate experts. Compared to IPCC's most recent 2001 report, predicted temperature and sea level rises have a smaller band of uncertainty if CO2 doubles. These “climate sensitivity” predictions are that average global temperatures will increase by about 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 F), with a range of possibilities from 2 C to 4.5 C (in 2001 the range given was 1.4 C to 5.8 C). Sea levels are now predicted to rise between 14 cm and 43 cm (5.5 to 17 inches, (previously range set at none to a meter). Note the newspaper article confuses climate sensitivity and predictions for warming in 2100, and spins the story in a decidely skeptical manner. There is no good news to be found in these findings, if indeed this is the true draft report, as efforts to reduce carbon emissions lag and if trends continue we are almost certainly going to double carbon emission levels before the end of the century, leading to global heating well above the 2 C warming generally acknowledged as “dangerous”.